Imagine receiving a letter from the future. A letter that describes what life in Cape Town might look like in 2045. What would it say? How would the city have changed? And what (in)actions taken today led to that future?
In this blog post, we embark on a journey into the future. Using a strategic foresighting methodology, we explore three potential scenarios for the city, each shaped by different trends, drivers, and uncertainties. I focused on technology uptake, the resilience of local government, the impact of climate change and private/community adaptation in these scenarios, which I hope offer a glimpse into possible futures that could unfold depending on the choices we make today.
But these are more than just thought experiments. They are calls to action, urging us to consider the kind of future we want for our city and what we need to do to create it.
So, let's open these letters from the future and see what they have to tell us.
City of Disconnect
Dear Uncle Pete, 2023,
My name is Falynn, your niece. I’m grown up now and I’m writing from 2045 to tell you about how the city has changed after reading about your career in planning. Our city has undergone many transformations. I wish to share with you what our future looks like, hoping it brings some sense of clarity and, hopefully, a guidance for the choices you make today.
Despite a national government that weakened considerably over the years, our town’s local government showed formidable resilience and fortitude. However, it has done so through technology and privatisation, without solving some of the biggest challenges.
We continue to grapple with the rule of law. Petty crime and corruption persist. The mafia influence in municipal services remains a challenge, eroding trust and hindering social progress. Your boss promoted clean governance, but in the end by the time you retire you won’t know who you can trust (on the plus side(?) some people even turned consulting on ‘how to avoid state capture’ into a second career!)
Like your generation, ours still battles with economic inclusion. Too many of our young people are unemployed, and the prevalence of informal settlements is a stark reminder of the inequalities that persist.
Our city has always been known for the creative naming of informal settlements and that has not stopped. Some of the biggest new settlements have played on the collection of data that has not helped improve their circumstances, and the exclusion from the privately provided municipal services - “InfoShante”, “SiliconShadow” and “PrivatiZone” are some of the largest new settlements, on Swartklip, and Hout Bay (after the 2032 fires) .
Despite this, those in power will tell you that our technology adaptation is something to marvel at. Advanced AI manages water usage, preventing wastage and ensuring reliable distribution. With satellite monitoring and AI analytics, we've been able to monitor alien vegetation, illegal dumping, and informal settlements along our rivers and other sensitive areas. However, we have not been good at solving these problems - while for some people these technologies have helped lower the costs of municipal services, others are still protesting to access them.
Since 2030, there has been a prominent anti-technology party in the political landscape, known as the Human Party. This party argues that tech advancements have raced ahead too far, without bringing any tangible benefits to local communities. Advocating for a reduction in frivolous spending on digital gadgets, they champion redirecting those resources towards crucial social projects.
The Human Party (derided as the “Thechno-Rejects”), however, have earned a reputation that has seen them pigeonholed as the party of the past - and an odd gathering place for a generation resistant to change, conspiracy theorists, infallible charlatans and individuals with vested interests in maintaining the status quo - even if that means preying on digitally excluded youth, of whom there are still many.
According to global rankings, climate change adaptation is one of our “crowning achievements”. We've transformed our infrastructures to deal with heatwaves and extreme weather. Cricket and fly plagues, which became a menace in the heat waves of the 2030’s, are kept under control by bioengineered predators, an efficient response to the pest issue, and integrated with composting waste solutions, which helps somewhat with the ongoing need to incentivise better waste management.
As you know, the state's struggles gave rise to a parallel private elite, developing extensive off-grid living estates equipped with private health care, security, and education. Due to the rule of law issues, this trend did not stop, and the social divide has grown. In a town nearby, the municipality has been weakened, with more power held by a Board of Federated Estates. This Board represents homeowners associations in municipal budgeting, with a focus on servicing estates and ensuring that goods and people access the estate entry points. Some have opted for ethnic and language based access rules and are so far defeating the courts through delays. At least two have kommandostalsel inspired perimeter policing and armed escorts for residents to and from home and any external point of interest, and operate these without regulatory oversight due to the Board’s informal dominance in municipal structures.
I urge you to focus on strengthening the rule of law and promoting economic inclusion. Make sure that adoption of digital tools is transparent and be aware of the potential for digitisation to be another weapon in socio-political divides. And while the rise of the private elite seems unavoidable, ensure they remain part of the broader community, sharing the burden and benefits of our common home.
Yours sincerely,
Falynn, 2045
City of Hope
Dear Henriette, 2023,
My name is Jabu, writing from the future - our city in 2045. Our beloved city, while thriving in some areas, still faces numerous challenges in others. I read about your work in social cohesion and I wanted to tell you that there are many social, technical and economic transitions ahead - and today, mama, we are more cohesive because of how we managed these changes!
In our time, the government has made a remarkable recovery. Technology adaptation is thriving; both national and local governments utilise advanced technologies for service delivery. Sensors throughout the system are used for improved water management and distribution, ensuring adequate supplies and eliminating wastage and we can all see in real time what the quality, availability and usage is. I think you spoke about Day Zero, our integrated Water App is called DropZhero, do you like it? It helps us all to save water and money, and to trust our water quality.
We have also made progress in enforcing the rule of law. The rampant petty crime and corruption of your time has significantly reduced. It didn’t happen overnight, some organisations got better first, then some towns. Transparent reporting throughout supply chains, community involvement and strong opposition parties, and cleaning up law enforcement all helped. The banking system and SARS also became very important in identifying transactions after we moved away from cash.
Energy costs went down after 2024, and the world’s productivity changed with AI. This resulted in lots of new jobs, which also improved crime. A renewed emphasis on skill training has provided new opportunities for all citizens, creating a more equitable society.
The affordable housing debate settled down somewhat, with more people being able to afford entry-level housing and the city promoting development throughout the housing supply chain. After the construction mafia were brought under control, more companies registered as social housing providers, which also helped a bit. We don’t have everyone housed yet, but there is more space in informal settlements for the Umhlaba Hubs (I think you called it “reblocking”?) work you started - although, Marikana settlement was renamed “Xanadwaba” recently, to remind us not to forget about them, and to provoke against the city and NGO’s Umhlaba Hubs programmes which, some say, despite the integration of community-led design and ‘high-tech water and sanitation services’, is just rebranding of informality without enough attention to housing first.
Henriette, climate change adaptation is a struggle. Despite our advancements, the forces of nature prove overwhelming. It's not uncommon for people to relocate seasonally, which means there are some months when the city is very quiet. Some people become unemployed again, and the weather is terrible for those who remain. It used to be the utilities who demanded a lot of power in planning decisions but now it is emergency services who have quite a lot of say, too. Every morning, our CityAlerts bring a ray of hope, delivered by none other than the Commander of Disaster Management. No matter what device you use - be it a water meter, electricity meter, cellular phone, or any other communication device - the Commander's uplifting message will reach you promptly before 7:30 am. This daily briefing not only keeps us informed, but also fosters a sense of unity and resilience as we navigate our day in the city of hope.
Sadly, after too many coastal storms, the famous Promenade that you loved no longer exists, but we are rebuilding our city around four new “central parks” - Century Park, Swartklip Park, Wynberg Park and Racecourse Park.
Most remarkably, the necessity for a private elite has declined. With improvements in public services, and integrated development around these amazing parks, people who are now included in the economy are opting to remain on the public provision, and some who had previously opted out are even returning to using public goods and services. This has, in turn, contributed to the strengthening of state resources, as more citizens utilise and invest in public services.
Though we've made strides in some areas, I implore you to focus more on climate change adaptation. Use technology to predict and mitigate the adverse effects.
Best wishes,
Jabu, 2045
City of Lost Intentions
Dear Naledi,
I am Kimmi, writing to you from the year 2045. The city we had so much hope for changed significantly and, unfortunately, not for the better.
The national and local governments failed to adapt to our changing times, becoming weaker and less efficient. Climate change impacts have grown far worse than what we anticipated, with higher temperatures, more frequent floods, and extreme weather events. We experience frequent insect and rodent plagues, exacerbated by the heat and our deteriorating waste management and water quality systems. Many people have left the city, some to rural areas and others abroad.
Technology adaptation remains largely in the hands of the private elite who have separated from the general public, living in gated estates that have become fortresses, where high walls separate their modernity and prosperity from the struggling city outside. They are autonomous, running private healthcare, security, energy and education and connected to the global economy through remote work - some have listed their estates on the JSE, and most make use of a private airport for travel.
Some have amalgamated, and there are two large estates that have called for a referendum to be declared municipalities of their own before the upcoming local government elections. If this mini-municipalisation catches on, it will have a big impact on availability of funds for the rest of us!
Their argument for separation is influenced by South African municipalities' dire state, however. With weakening rule of law, petty crime and corruption have surged. Mafia-like syndicates control critical municipal services, draining city's resources. Municipalities are unable to attract debt, but each time we think it is the final straw, money appears from a new ‘investor’ - but we have also learnt that this is tied to a new syndicate taking control on the streets.
But in this dystopian reality people survive - there are new markets, and scams, every day as there always have been. Even disaster management and humanitarian relief is big business and big turf these days.
I write to you not to dishearten, but to warn and urge for action. Invest in building government capability and economic inclusion. Embrace technology and climate adaptation measures for all, not just the elite. Your actions today can change this grim future.
Yours,
Kimmi, 2045
All images created with DALL-E AI image generator
Letters entirely fictional and naturally limited in their ability to explore all themes of the future.
What would your key drivers and uncertainties be? What future possibilities can be presented? What call to action do they create?